‘Citizens’ Assemblies Could Wake Keir Starmer up to Reversing Brexit ‘

On a visit to Wales during the election campaign Keir Starmer said he didn’t think the UK would join the EU in his lifetime.

The reference to his lifetime seems to have been fed to him by the questioner, and what Starmer said was, “I’ve been really clear about not rejoining the EU, the single market or the customs union or a return to freedom of movement.” But that clearly rules out rejoining the EU – or the single market – under his leadership.

Starmer’s comment was made just as the latest polls showed that 61% of Brits – including 78% of Labour voters – would vote to rejoin the EU.

So why has Starmer left himself no wriggle-room on joining the EU or single market? Labour’s number one mission for Government is to achieve the highest growth in the G7, and, to be more precise, top the G7 list for growth per-person for two years running by the time of the next election.

This is something the UK never quite achieved as an EU Member, though it came close in 2001-2003. If Labour’s ambitions for the UK include such high levels of growth, then ruling out EU or single market membership seems perverse. 

Unless, perhaps, you factor in some of the political headwinds Starmer has to contend with. Nothing he says or does now about closer EU trade links can help UK economic growth much or at all over the next five years.

And then there are the electoral considerations. Voters in general don’t see Brexit as being all that important, while 39% of leavers would be put off supporting Labour if it reopened the question of EU membership.

Support for the EU looks suspiciously soft-centred. It is focused on joining the single market and customs union, with little thought for, say, committing to the euro, making a major contribution to the  £220 billion cost of EU enlargement, financing the EU through joint debt, a.k.a. eurobonds, or rejoining an EU that is increasingly influenced by the far-right. Yet those issues might trouble voters if rejoining the EU became a subject of active political contention in the UK. 

That said, the route Starmer is taking is unsettling and unsatisfactory. It leaves many voters – not to mention businesses – frustrated over the Government’s attitude to closer links with the EU.

The Government seems frozen in the headlights of its own uncertainties – afraid to discuss EU or single market membership even as long-term options, for fear of what might happen if the discussion gets serious.

What Starmer and his Government need is a better understanding of the sort of EU links Brits would be willing to accept. That might confirm his “not in my lifetime” approach to the EU and the single market – or it might give him the confidence to try something different. 

The way forward could be a series of citizen’s assemblies to find out what people think about EU links when they are presented with information and debate about options before they are asked to express a view on them.

A citizens’ assembly (“assembly”) is a quantum leap beyond opinion polling. It is a cross-section of society – as many as 150-strong – who are brought together for several days to learn and debate an issue, and reach conclusions about what they think should happen.

Key advantages of assemblies are that expert knowledge is made available, and that discussion is fair and fact-based. Assemblies are said to have a “signpost function” – letting politicians know where people want to go with concrete measures and revealing the solutions which would have majority support. 

Downing Street Chief of Staff Sue Gray has argued that Labour should use assemblies to get the public involved in deciding contentious issues such as constitutional reform, devolution and housing. Polling organisation Ipsos has welcomed this, with the caveat that assemblies must be managed with due diligence and integrity, which is essential. 

Options ripe for the scrutiny of assemblies include a completely new UK/EU trade agreement, membership of the EU or the EU single market, and a customs union between the UK and the EU.

It would be important for the focus in each case to be on political and governance issues as well as on better trade links. Joining the single market is probably a good trade option but the UK applying EU laws without having a say in their adoption might not be a good governance option. Political and governance issues around EU membership are complex and could need multiple assemblies.

The object of the citizens’ assemblies agenda on UK/EU links would not be lobbying for rejoining by stealth. It would be searching for future links with the EU that would be acceptable in the UK. When that is settled, politicians can decide whether the UK needs to explore new options with the EU.

We might discover that support for rejoining is more than skin-deep, or, contrariwise, that the politics of the EU turn off too many Brits for it to work.

But big surprises for Starmer and his advisers could not be ruled out. We might find, for example, that Brits would opt for the economic advantages of membership of the single market, even if the UK had no say in EU laws applying in the UK. 

But finding answers to these questions would help politicians plan for the future. It might help businesses too, who could focus their efforts to influence government on options that the public seemed likely to support. And it would help all of us to learn more about the implications of different options for our future links with the EU. 

We have the institutions capable of organising citizens’ assemblies in an independent and rigorously impartial way – institutions such as the Institute for Government, and UK in a Changing Europe. Or a new body could be set up.

Politicians should have no role in the process whatsoever. A citizens’ assemblies project on UK/EU links could be privately funded and might qualify for funding from UK Research and Innovation.  

Where there’s a will, there’s a way. A citizens’ assemblies project could bring the UK’s future relations with the EU back onto political agendas without forcing politicians to take positions before they are ready.

Derrick Wyatt KC is Emeritus Professor of Law at the University of Oxford.